The Central Bank of Türkiye has published the third Inflation Report 2026. In it, the regulator raised the forecast for annual inflation at the end of this year from 26% to 28%, while maintaining the estimate for the end of 2027 at 15%.
What has changed in the new report
Compared to the May report, the center point of the forecast for the end of 2026 was raised by two percentage points - to 28%. One of the reasons for the revision was a higher estimate of food inflation: the assumption for the end of the year was increased from 26.3% to 28.5%. The forecast for the end of 2027 remained at 15%.
Why is this important for residents?
The forecast does not determine the price of a specific product or promise a specific exchange rate for the lira. It sets the benchmark that banks, businesses and depositors look at. With higher expected inflation, pressure on borrowing costs, rental budgets and service prices persists longer. It is useful for households to compare the return on a deposit not with a nominal figure, but with the expected growth of their own basket of expenses.
What does this mean for real estate and investing?
For a home buyer, three channels are important at once: the cost of financing, the growth rate of construction costs and real demand. A higher inflation forecast in itself does not guarantee an increase in the price of any object. A weak location, an inflated starting price or low liquidity can block the overall inflationary effect. The investor should consider the net return after taxes, maintenance, downtime and selling expenses.
What to watch next
The next rate decisions and actual TÜİK data will show whether the trajectory matches the new forecast. It is not only monthly fluctuations that are important, but also the underlying inflation trend, domestic demand and business expectations. Turkey Compass separately checked a common mistake: the forecast of 28% and the intermediate goal of 24% are different indicators and cannot be replaced with each other.