After the publication of the Inflation Report, two figures simultaneously appeared in the headlines - 28% and 24%. Both are official, but describe different concepts. It is incorrect to present one as a correction or refutation of the other.
What does 28% mean?
28% is the center point of the annual inflation forecast for the end of 2026 in the new report. It reflects the current assessment of the most likely path given the bank's assumptions about demand, food, imports, expectations and monetary policy. In the May report, the corresponding estimate was 26%.
What does 24% mean?
24% is an interim goal for 2026, which the bank has maintained. It serves as a guideline for monetary policy and evaluation of its results. The report also maintained interim targets of 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028. The goal shows the desired trajectory, and the forecast shows the current assessment of the possible outcome.
Verdict
The statement “The Central Bank predicts 24% inflation at the end of 2026” is incorrect. It is equally inaccurate to say that the bank abandoned its 24% target just because the forecast was raised to 28%. Correct formulation: the forecast for the end of the year is 28%, the interim goal remains 24%.
How to read future messages
Check which word is next to the number: forecast, target, range or actual value. The date and horizon of the indicator are also important. Confusing these concepts can lead to erroneous decisions on deposits, loans, currency and real estate.