The Central Bank of Türkiye published the August survey of market participants, conducted on August 10-12 among 68 representatives of the financial and real sectors. This is not the regulator’s official forecast, but a summary expectation of the experts surveyed.
Main expectations for the end of the year
Survey participants expect inflation of 29.43% by the end of 2026. The average expectation of the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year was 48.1893 TRY, and for the next 12 months - 51.6567 TRY. Türkiye's economic growth forecast for 2026 is 3.1%, the expected current account deficit is $50.2 billion.
What does the market expect from interest rates?
For the next three meetings, participants indicated average rate expectations of 37%, 36.13% and 35.25%. The expectation for the end of 2026 is also 35.25%, and 12 months from now it is 29.59%. These are market participants' estimates and not a predetermined decision by the TCMB: the actual path will depend on inflation, domestic demand and financial conditions.
Why 29.43% does not contradict the TCMB forecast of 28%
The figures refer to different sources. 28% is the center point of TCMB's official forecast in the 2026-III Inflation Report. The figure of 29.43% is the average expectation of the surveyed market participants. The difference shows that the market so far assesses the inflation risk slightly higher than the regulator’s base scenario.
Practical conclusion for residents and investors
The survey is useful as a guide to budget, deposits and funding costs, but does not guarantee a specific rate or return on an asset. When deciding to purchase a property or invest money, it is important to consider the true outcome after inflation, taxes and expenses, and check for updates on actual data and rate decisions.