Türkiye's market professionals nudged their 2026 year-end inflation expectation up to 29.61% in the Central Bank's September survey, from 29.43% in the previous round. The 12-month USD/TRY expectation rose more visibly, to 58.6049 from 57.4278, while the year-end exchange-rate view edged down to 51.5716. The TCMB collected responses from 67 financial- and real-sector participants. International investors should read the results as a snapshot of expectations, not as the central bank's own forecast, an exchange-rate target or a promise about future interest-rate decisions.
Inflation expectations moved higher across the main horizons
Participants raised their September monthly CPI expectation from 2.08% to 2.12%. The year-end figure increased to 29.61%, the 12-month expectation to 23.70% from 23.69%, and the 24-month reading to 18.32% from 18.03%. These are survey averages. They are separate from measured TÜİK inflation, the government's Medium-Term Programme assumptions and the TCMB's own Inflation Report ranges.
The short and 12-month currency views moved in opposite directions
The year-end USD/TRY expectation slipped from 51.6567 to 51.5716, but the 12-month expectation rose from 57.4278 to 58.6049. That divergence matters for anyone comparing a short lira deposit with a longer investment horizon. It is not a trading signal: actual exchange rates can move outside survey expectations as inflation, capital flows, energy prices and policy change.
Participants expect gradual rate reductions, not an official schedule
The survey's expectation for the first policy meeting was 37%, matching the rate maintained by the TCMB on 10 September. Respondents then expected 36% at the second meeting and 35.07% at the third, with a 12-month rate of 29.22%. The Monetary Policy Committee has not committed to that path; its published decision says each meeting will remain data-driven and policy can be tightened if the inflation outlook deteriorates.
Growth expectations also softened
The survey put 2026 GDP growth at 3%, while the next-year expectation declined from 4% to 3.9%. The expected year-end current-account deficit eased only slightly, from $50.2 billion to $50.1 billion. These aggregate views do not predict the revenue, rent or resale value of a particular business or property. Sector, city, financing cost and foreign-currency exposure still need separate analysis.
How investors and households should use the survey
Use the poll as one scenario input, alongside current bank quotations, actual inflation, official policy decisions and your own cash-flow dates. A nominal lira return should be tested after tax and against both inflation and currency risk. Property buyers should use signed price evidence and a real loan quote rather than converting the 12-month exchange-rate expectation into a guaranteed purchase budget. The next survey can revise every number again.