Turkey's seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index rose by 0.1 point from August to 102.5 in September 2026, the central bank reported on 21 September. A reading above 100 indicates an optimistic balance among the manufacturers surveyed, but the detail was mixed: current orders and employment expectations supported the index, while expected export orders, production and fixed investment pulled it lower. The survey covered 1,982 manufacturing workplaces between 1 and 14 September.
The headline stayed just above the neutral line
The adjusted index reached 102.5, while the unadjusted index fell 0.8 point to 102.0. The 100 threshold separates an optimistic aggregate balance from a pessimistic one; it is not a growth rate. A reading of 102.5 therefore does not mean output, sales or profits increased by 2.5%.
Orders and hiring gave support
Assessments of the general business situation, current total orders, expected employment over the next three months and orders received over the past three months made positive contributions. Manufacturers also reported a stronger recent production balance, and domestic orders moved from a negative to a positive balance.
Export and investment signals softened
Expectations for export orders and production over the next three months weakened, as did the balance for fixed-capital investment over the next 12 months. Recent export orders shifted from a positive to a negative balance. The survey therefore points to optimism overall, but not a uniform acceleration across demand, exports and investment.
Price pressure remains relevant
Businesses reported stronger balances for recent and expected unit-cost increases, and expectations for selling-price rises also strengthened. The expected annual producer-price inflation rate 12 months ahead eased only 0.2 point to 31.0%. For international investors and suppliers, that makes margins, contract indexation and foreign-exchange exposure as important as the headline confidence reading.
How to use the release
Compare the index with capacity utilisation, industrial production, export orders, producer prices and company accounts. The answers were collected by 14 September and reflect respondents' assessments rather than a central-bank forecast. One monthly move of 0.1 point is too small to establish a trend or justify a company, currency or property investment on its own.